When it comes down to it, sports betting is all about math. At least if you want to be successful. Many veteran punters tout the benefits of “knowing the game” – and there’s a lot to be said about experience. However, themselves don’t rely on some hidden trove of knowledge of how each player will perform against another to set their prices. They use statistics. And if you want to beat the bookies, you’ll have to think like the bookies. Thankfully, people have been mulling over this for decades, and the Kelly criterion is one of the results.

What Is the Kelly Criterion?

The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula that determines the optimal size of a bet. It relies on the principles of probability theory to maximize the expected value. Essentially, the Kelly bet …

Two of this season s underachievers meet when Everton welcome Aston Villa to Goodison Park on Saturday.

Heading into the 2010-11 campaign, both Everton and Villa were considered realistic contenders for European football, but things have not worked out as they would have hoped.Villa had, in fact, already secured a Europa League play-off berth with their sixth-place finish last term, but after Martin O Neill s walkout on the eve of the season, they slumped to a 4-3 aggregate loss to Rapid Vienna in August to dash their hopes of an extended European run.Everton finished in eighth place in 2009-10, just outside the European spots, but after failing to register their first English Premier League win until October, David Moyes men never really got going this season and find themselv…

Roma director Gian Paolo Montali believes his side should be entirely team-orientated ahead of their trip to Ukraine on Tuesday.

The Serie A giants travel to Donetsk to face Shakhtar, trailing 3-2 after an exciting first-leg clash at the Stadio Olimpico in the Champions League Round of 16.

The first-leg loss means Roma now need to win in Ukraine to progress and the feat will not be easy given the fact that Shakhtar have not lost at home in any competition since October 2008, but Montali has called for a team effort in order to get the victory.

The only thing that matters is our performance on the pitch, Montali said.

Everyone should focus on what they can do for the team. This is the only thing that matters now. We should be fully concentrated on what …

Slaven Bilic heads back to Goodison Park this weekend with Roberto Martinez quick to compliment the manner in which the former Everton defender has turned West Ham into credible contenders for Champions League football. 

While Bilic s predecessor Sam Allardyce had West Ham fans briefly dreaming of European football last season, a failure to maintain a strong start ultimately prompted a slide down the table to 12th and a managerial change.

Nine months on from returning to Upton Park, ex-Hammers centre-back Bilic has led the club to within a point of fourth-placed Manchester City with 10 matches remaining, although Manuel Pellegrini s men do have a game in hand. 

A 1-0 win on Wednesday over title challengers Tottenham is the latest in an impressive run of re…

Joe Cole appears set to sign for Aston Villa on a free transfer after the club confirmed he had passed a medical on Tuesday.

Former England midfielder Cole is a free agent after his contract at West Ham expired.

Villa had been strongly linked with the 32-year-old and a deal now seems close to completion.

The Midlands outfit posted a picture of Cole in Villa training gear on their official Twitter account on Tuesday, accompanied by the message: Joe Cole at Bodymoor Heath (Villa s training ground) having completed a medical this morning.

After lengthy spells with West Ham and Chelsea earlier in his career, Cole has switched clubs on a regular basis in recent seasons.

He joined Liverpool in 2010, but was soon loaned out to French side Lille, before rejoining …

Spanish prosecutors have requested that Neymar is tried for fraud in relation to his big-money move to Barcelona from Santos in 2013.

The Catalan giants announced that they paid a transfer fee of €57million for the Brazil captain, with Santos receiving €17m of that and Neymar s parents receiving the remainder.

However, a Brazilian investment fund that owned 40 per cent of the player s rights claims it was not paid the money it was owed.

Attorney Jose Perals of Spain s High Court has asked for an indictment for both Neymar and his father in the case.

An investigation claims the transfer fee for Neymar was much higher than reported at €83m and that the details were hidden from the public.

Both Neymar and Barcelona have denied any wrongd…

New Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola has made Everton defender John Stones his top transfer target, .

The England international has been long linked with a move away from Goodison Park over the past few transfer windows with Manchester United and Chelsea also interested.

However, Guardiola is keen to steal a march on his rivals as he prepares for his first season in the Premier League.

Stones moved to Everton from Barnsley in the summer of 2013 and has since racked up ninety-five appearances in all competitions, with his one and only goal for the Merseyside club so far coming in a 3-0 win over Manchester United towards the end of the 2014/15 Premier League campaign.

Internationally, he has been capped ten times for his country and is part of Ro…

Verdict: Lionel Messi to score 2+ goals

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Barcelona must overcome a surprise first-leg defeat against Levante if they are going to carry on their Copa del Rey defence.

Barcelona

Starting with the hosts, after demanding a response following their shock defeat at the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia seven days ago, Ernesto Valverde certainly got what he wanted last Sunday. With the defending Copa del Rey champions picking up a definitive 3-0 win over Eibar at the Nou Camp, Barcelona have re-established a five-point buffer at the top of the La Liga table. With many putting their 2-1 loss away to Levante down to a number of their biggest stars settling for a place on the bench, there is no doubt that Valverde will be recalling leading goa…

Mauricio Pochettino says Tottenham are working on possible transfers in the final week of the window but will not recall Vincent Janssen to the squad to cover for injuries.

The loss of Harry Kane and Dele Alli to respective ankle and hamstring injuries, while Son Heung-min is away with South Korea at the Asian Cup, has left Spurs with something of a crisis in attack.

Pochettino insists recent selection problems will not change Spurs transfer policy, but he says they are open to new arrivals before February.

I think it s clear. I am so open to improve the squad and add players, with Harry Kane and Dele Alli fit or not fit. It s so important to have a clear message for everyone, he told a news conference.

I was open in summer, I m open now, but the differ…

Is a move to London on the cards for Kingsley Coman?

Coman and Bayern Munich have so far been unable to reach an agreement over a new deal.

Chelsea are reportedly ready to pounce.

TOP STORY – CHELSEA TARGETING COMAN

Chelsea are monitoring Bayern Munich forward Kingsley Coman, according to Bild.

Coman has been in negotiations with Bundesliga champions Bayern regarding a new contract, but up until now, the Frenchman has been unwilling to re-sign.

Champions League holders Chelsea are keeping tabs on Coman, who has also been linked with Barcelona, Liverpool and Manchester United.

ROUND-UP

 It is set to be a busy time at St James Park. Sky Sports reports Eddie Howe has agreed to become Newcastle Unit…