A blown 18-point lead in the AFC Championship held the Kansas City Chiefs out of another Super Bowl appearance and could mark a metamorphosis for this team, with 2022 serving as the cocoon.
Am I getting a little too deep for you?
From the sounds of things, going deep is something the Chiefs will miss after trading away long-bomb specialist Tyreek Hill this offseason. With that deal came plenty of draft picks, which sets up the future foundations of the franchise — but that doesn’t mean Kansas City won’t compete.
Patrick Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the world, and he has plenty of ways to put up points. He’ll need to, because his defense lost many staples and is relying on young talent to grow while under constant bombardment from the nastiest schedule in the league.
We look into the best ways to make money with “Pat and his Mahomies” in our Kansas City Chiefs betting preview.
Kansas City Chiefs futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +1,200 |
| To win conference | +625 |
| To win division | +195 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 10.5 (Over -130) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes -230 / No +195 |
Best futures bet: Under 10.5 wins (+110)
Fourteen. Fourteen spreads have the Chiefs as favorites in 2022 against a schedule that could potentially include six of the eight division winners this season. And beyond those opponents, you have a dump of playoff contenders pushing Andy Reid’s team to the limit almost every week.
The Chiefs have won the AFC West in six straight seasons and have played in the AFC Championship Game in each of the past four years. Maintaining this success is a remarkable yet unsustainable streak, which isn’t lost on the Chiefs’ front office.
That’s why KC dealt Hill to Miami for a wheelbarrow of picks and why it’ll lean on low-cost youngsters on defense rather than fork over the dough for high-priced veterans. Mahomes is in for the long run, and the Chiefs are setting up for long-term success, which means taking a breath in 2022.
If you still love Kansas City in the AFC West, wait until the midway mark of the schedule to make your move. The Chargers have a much lighter opening slate but could run into trouble in the back half of the season, opening the door for Mahomes & Co. to make a late push at the division crown — and at a discounted price come Week 9.
Kansas City Chiefs betting overview
What will win bets: Patrick Mahomes
Given a wet behind the ears defense and a high-powered rotation of opponents pumping up the Chiefs’ weekly Over/Under numbers, Kansas City has to score points to be in play in 2022. That begins and ends with Patrick Mahomes.
The Hill trade takes away one of the most dangerous targets in football and has some questioning Mahomes’ sustainability without Tyreek stretching the field, pointing to a down year in 2021 snowballing into something worse.
If by “down year” you mean passing for more than 4,800 yards and connecting on 37 touchdowns, then you’re seriously not appreciating just how great Mahomes truly is. Not only is he among the top QBs in dealing with pressure — both from pass rushes but also time/score — but he has 2022’s No. 1-rated offensive line watching his back.
Competition is fierce, but the spreads are slimmer. And while a revolving door of quality QBs keeps coming after KC in 2022, Mahomes will give the Chiefs the edge in that department every single Sunday.
What will lose bets: Defense
The Chiefs will cross their fingers that their young stars and draft picks mature at a rapid rate in 2022, given the quality of offense lining up across from them. Ten of the Chiefs’ 17 games come against foes ranked Top 15 in EPA per play in 2021 (six vs. Top 10), and that doesn’t include a pair of games with both Denver and Las Vegas — two offenses on the up-and-up.
Kansas City’s defense has been terribly inconsistent for years, and besides the promise of a potent pass rush — which showed up in the second half of 2021 — KC ranked 24th in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and was 23rd in EPA allowed per play.
Many veterans are gone from this group, and while the front office devoted plenty of picks to beefing up the stop unit — thanks in part to the Hill trade — KC’s asking those inexperienced defenders and top prospects to pull a Tom Hanks and get BIG overnight while facing a lineup of lethal scoring attacks.
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Kansas City Chiefs game-by-game odds
Lookahead lines have Kansas City as a favorite in 14 games in 2022, and that’s actually a downtick from 2021, in which the Chiefs entered as the betting chalk in 15 of 17 contests and faced an average spread of -6.75. This year, that average spread is way down to -3.64 with KC up against not only the fifth toughest strength of schedule but also the hardest slate of rival passers in my QB SOS.
Kansas City’s five losses in 2021 came to elite company, falling to a healthy Baltimore in Week 2, the Bolts, Bills, AFC No. 1 seed Tennessee, and Cincinnati (and then again in OT in the AFC title game). The 2022 calendar includes four of those foes as well as NFC West heavyweights San Francisco and Los Angeles, and tosses Tom Brady and the Bucs in for good measure.
Eleven spreads are between -3 and +3, and the Chiefs have been cash money against those close lines, boasting a 10-5 SU record and 10-4-1 ATS mark in games with field goal lines (fave or dog) since Mahomes took over in 2018.
We also find KC giving 6.5 points or more in four contests, a spread situation that isn’t as sound. The Chiefs are 35-4 SU in those games but 19-19-1 ATS as favorites of more than six in the past four seasons.
| 1 | @ Arizona | -3 | 53 |
| 2 | vs. L.A. Chargers | -3 | 53 |
| 3 | @ Indianapolis | -3 | 49.5 |
| 4 | @ Tampa Bay | +2.5 | 53 |
| 5 | vs. Las Vegas | -6.5 | 53 |
| 6 | vs. Buffalo | PK | 54.5 |
| 7 | @ San Francisco | PK | 48.5 |
| 8 | Bye | ||
| 9 | vs. Tennessee | -6.5 | 51 |
| 10 | vs. Jacksonville | -11 | 49 |
| 11 | @ L.A. Chargers | +2.5 | 53 |
| 12 | vs. L.A. Rams | -3 | 52 |
| 13 | @ Cincinnati | -2.5 | 50 |
| 14 | @ Denver | -1 | 48.5 |
| 15 | @ Houston | -10 | 48.5 |
| 16 | vs. Seattle | -11 | 48.5 |
| 17 | vs. Denver | -4 | 48.5 |
| 18 | @ Las Vegas | -2.5 | 49.5 |
Kansas City Chiefs pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
I still have the Chiefs rated almost neck-and-neck with Buffalo. Reid and Mahomes are a Hall of Fame duo that isn’t going to go away quietly. The loss of Hill is overvalued in the market, in my opinion.
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