It’s a coast-to-coast contest when the Washington Commanders cross the country to face the Seattle Seahawks and settle the Week 10 odds.
Washington earned just its second win in the last seven outings at New England last weekend and now travels for the second straight game, which also serves as its fourth road trip in the past five weeks.
Seattle, on the other hand, is still stinging from its worst showing of the season. The Seahawks were blasted by 30 points in Baltimore last time out and hope the return home can help them cover the NFL odds before a daunting schedule stretch ahead.
I break down the spread and Over/Under total for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff and give my free NFL picks and predictions for Commanders at Seahawks on November 12.
Commanders vs Seahawks odds
Commanders vs Seahawks predictions
If you follow me each week, you know I’m jumping into the opening NFL odds the second they hit the board on Sunday nights with my weekly Bet Now/Bet Later column. One of the first Week 10 wagers I placed was taking the Over 44 points for this game.
This total has since climbed to as high as 45.5 points, but there are some books dealing this number as low as 44.5 Over/Under. I strongly believe the potential for plenty of points is there.
The Commanders offense is turning a corner at the midway mark of the schedule, with QB Sam Howell picking up the pace of his passing and avoiding drive-killing sacks that sandbagged this offense in the first seven weeks.
Howell and the offensive line have given up only four total sacks the last two games – versus an average of almost six per game to start the season – and his passing numbers have improved. Howell has thrown for a grand total of 722 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions against solid defensive opposition from Philadelphia and New England.
Those efforts have the Commanders ranking No. 8 in EPA per play since Week 8, versus a rating of 22nd in the first seven games. That advanced metric would be higher if Washington had cashed in more of its red zone trips against the Patriots last Sunday, finishing the day 1-for-4 inside the New England’s 20-yard line.
The Seahawks defense could remedy that issue for the Commies. Seattle has been steady in some defensive measurements but bottoming out in other key stats like third-down defense and inside the red zone. The Seahawks have allowed touchdowns on 66.67% of their competitors’ shots inside the 20-yard line (28th in the league).
As for Seattle’s offense, it sees a major spin in quality of opponent in Week 10. Quarterback Geno Smith’s numbers took a hit versus the likes of Cleveland and Baltimore — two of the top-rated stop units in the land — but gets a big break against the Commanders.
Washington has been burned by opposing passers so far in 2023, giving up the second-most air yards and an average of 7.2 yards per attempt (28th). The Commanders pass rush has been gutted by the trades of Chase Young and Montez Sweat, which means Smith will have time in the pocket to let deeper plays develop.
Smith averages 8.1 yards per attempt when kept clean (seventh-highest among QBs) which is a situation he hasn’t seen much of, entering Week 10 as the fifth-most pressured passer in the NFL. Despite that, Geno still ranks Top 10 in completed air yards and has hit 16 passing plays of 25 yards or more this season.
This is definitely a “buy low” spot on two offenses that put forth low-scoring showings in Week 9. Both teams have much more firepower than the market is accounting for, especially with the poor quality of defense taking the field in Seattle Sunday afternoon.
My best bet: Over 44.5 (-117 at Pinnacle)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Commanders vs Seahawks same-game parlay
Over 44.5Brian Robinson Over 46.5 rush yardsDK Metcalf anytime TD50% boost available
+625 +937 at bet365
With Washington’s offense showing life and its defense giving up big gains through the air, this will be a shootout in Seattle.
Brian Robinson is coming off two strong showings on the ground, and player projections have him going for 60-plus yards in Week 10.
The Commanders allow the most passing touchdowns, and DK Metcalf is bound to break a big one for six points on Sunday.
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