When it comes down to it, sports betting is all about math. At least if you want to be successful. Many veteran punters tout the benefits of “knowing the game” – and there’s a lot to be said about experience. However, themselves don’t rely on some hidden trove of knowledge of how each player will perform against another to set their prices. They use statistics. And if you want to beat the bookies, you’ll have to think like the bookies. Thankfully, people have been mulling over this for decades, and the Kelly criterion is one of the results.
What Is the Kelly Criterion?
The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula that determines the optimal size of a bet. It relies on the principles of probability theory to maximize the expected value. Essentially, the Kelly bet …
Two of this season s underachievers meet when Everton welcome Aston Villa to Goodison Park on Saturday.
Heading into the 2010-11 campaign, both Everton and Villa were considered realistic contenders for European football, but things have not worked out as they would have hoped.Villa had, in fact, already secured a Europa League play-off berth with their sixth-place finish last term, but after Martin O Neill s walkout on the eve of the season, they slumped to a 4-3 aggregate loss to Rapid Vienna in August to dash their hopes of an extended European run.Everton finished in eighth place in 2009-10, just outside the European spots, but after failing to register their first English Premier League win until October, David Moyes men never really got going this season and find themselv…
Roma director Gian Paolo Montali believes his side should be entirely team-orientated ahead of their trip to Ukraine on Tuesday.
The Serie A giants travel to Donetsk to face Shakhtar, trailing 3-2 after an exciting first-leg clash at the Stadio Olimpico in the Champions League Round of 16.
The first-leg loss means Roma now need to win in Ukraine to progress and the feat will not be easy given the fact that Shakhtar have not lost at home in any competition since October 2008, but Montali has called for a team effort in order to get the victory.
The only thing that matters is our performance on the pitch, Montali said.
Everyone should focus on what they can do for the team. This is the only thing that matters now. We should be fully concentrated on what …
Slaven Bilic heads back to Goodison Park this weekend with Roberto Martinez quick to compliment the manner in which the former Everton defender has turned West Ham into credible contenders for Champions League football.
While Bilic s predecessor Sam Allardyce had West Ham fans briefly dreaming of European football last season, a failure to maintain a strong start ultimately prompted a slide down the table to 12th and a managerial change.
Nine months on from returning to Upton Park, ex-Hammers centre-back Bilic has led the club to within a point of fourth-placed Manchester City with 10 matches remaining, although Manuel Pellegrini s men do have a game in hand.
A 1-0 win on Wednesday over title challengers Tottenham is the latest in an impressive run of re…
Joe Cole appears set to sign for Aston Villa on a free transfer after the club confirmed he had passed a medical on Tuesday.
Former England midfielder Cole is a free agent after his contract at West Ham expired.
Villa had been strongly linked with the 32-year-old and a deal now seems close to completion.
The Midlands outfit posted a picture of Cole in Villa training gear on their official Twitter account on Tuesday, accompanied by the message: Joe Cole at Bodymoor Heath (Villa s training ground) having completed a medical this morning.
After lengthy spells with West Ham and Chelsea earlier in his career, Cole has switched clubs on a regular basis in recent seasons.
He joined Liverpool in 2010, but was soon loaned out to French side Lille, before rejoining …